Clashing Dreams in the Middle East

As revolution rushes through the Middle East, radical Islam and democratic secularism will clash and confront one another. (Source: beforeitsnews.com)

Osama bin Laden may be dead, but his dream lives on. His was a dream of violence, bloodshed, and sectarianism, one in which a new Islamist caliphate could take power, and his repressive ideology would flourish.

Bin Laden also envisioned a Middle East that would be sympathetic to his ideas and ideals. And while most people are repulsed by his beliefs, there are a frightening number of people who hold the same bloodthirsty views as him. Many of these are already involved in al Qaeda, the Taliban, or other distinct terrorist entities. But this mindset can be found all throughout the Middle East and beyond. It is an idea that advocates the violent enforcement of one’s own beliefs, and is not only a grave danger to lives, but an offensive and woefully misguided interpretation of the otherwise peaceful and fairly welcoming religion of Islam.

Yet the Arab Spring, as it is now known, is seriously calling into question the efficacy and popularity of bin Laden’s violent Islamist vision for the Middle East. Unlike the religious revolution al Qaeda dreams of someday bringing about, the Arab Spring which brought down both Hosni Mubarak and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was almost exclusively secular, and motivated by secular desires and aspirations. It’s democracy that the Arab people seem bent on achieving, not an Islamic state or caliphate.

So there seem to be two conflicting viewpoints in the Middle East right now. On the one hand, Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and all who share their twisted views see a future in which their own beliefs about religion and society are paramount. On the other hand, a powerful new youth movement is swelling in the Middle East, a movement that, despite al Qaeda’s fondest wishes, is a secular one.

The stage seems set for yet more tension in the Middle East. Even as a new dream of freedom and democracy builds momentum in places that previously suffered under terribly repressive states, a different kind of repression, this time of a religious variety, is still in the arena. As these two dreams of the future, one of religious nationalism and the other of secular democracy, face off over the coming years, the people of the Middle East will have a choice. They must make it wisely.

In Other News…

Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara shake hands in Ivory Coast last year. The deadly struggle between the two over presidential legitimacy has been largely overlooked by the media. (Photo credit: Thierry Gouegnon)

Without a doubt, this has been a very newsworthy year, historically speaking. There’ve been massive protests throughout the Middle East since the end of last year, and corrupt regimes have been been toppled in Tunisia and Egypt. Civil war has erupted in Libya, sparking international outrage and a coalition military intervention on behalf of the rebellion. And of course, an earthquake and tsunami of unparalleled ferocity swept across Japan and has set off a chain of events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, causing a new wave of nuclear worries, in Japan and around the world.

But in this deluge of enormously significant world events, it’s so easy to lose track of the smaller, yet still significant things going on around us. I say this in particular reference to news and world (or somewhat more local) events.

One place I’ve seen this pretty strongly recently is in the coverage (or lack thereof) of the humanitarian crisis in Ivory Coast (or Côte d’Ivoire, in the French spelling) over the presidential election results of last year. Incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo disputed the results, which showed that his opponent Alassane Ouattara had won the election. The country has been in deadly struggle ever since, with Gbagbo using veritable death squads to wipe out opponents and suppress supporters of Ouattara, despite international recognition of Ouattara as the winner. The conflicts have left possibly hundreds dead, and only now is Ouattara beginning to get the upper hand; and not from the international community. This issue is just now starting to become major news.

The point I’m trying to make is this: When there’s a lot of big news going on, as there has been (in spades) this year, we tend to forget about smaller things. I’m pretty guilty of this, as you can see in many of my posts and in my most-used tags, but the point still stands. A lot of the time, I focus too heavily on just the big-name issues, as do many others I know.

In a way, this connects to another post of mine about why we should all read the news. Just as it’s important to stay up to date on major events in our world through the innumerable media outlets available to us, it’s crucial that we look behind those events, so to speak, to what may be happening in other parts of the world.

The conflicts happening in the Middle East now are enormously important of course, but Americans can’t forget about the problems we still need to sort out in Afghanistan. Libya might be big news for the moment, but let’s not forget about what’s happening in Yemen, Syria, and other countries, not to mention Egypt and Tunisia! The devastation in Japan is heartbreaking, but we can’t neglect the disasters happening elsewhere.

Above all, this post is a kind of call away from too much focus. Our passion for certain world issues or events shouldn’t keep us from remembering the other crucial things happening in the world, on a local, national, and international level. So stay informed, not just about whatever most interests you, but about whatever is most important to the world!

Libya on the Verge of Civil War

Worshippers in Libya, mourning the dead and looking to a brighter future.

Unrest and protest seem to be swiftly turning to outright civil war and rebellion in Libya, the North African country that seems likely to be the third to topple in the wave of protests sweeping the Arab world and North Africa. Unlike the other countries in which major protests have occurred or are occurring, Libya’s uprising has been an extremely bloody one, with Colonel Moammar Qaddafi using brutal and heartless attacks on his own people in an effort to hold onto power.

Following Friday Prayers in Tripoli, thousands of protestors poured out of mosques and stormed the streets in another concerted effort against Qaddafi. After a short while of marching, they were fired on by Qaddafi’s men and supporters, and at least several were killed or injured in the shooting. Qaddafi has begun turning the capital city of Tripoli into a stronghold of his remaining power and support, even as more eastern cities like Benghazi and Tobruk have fallen completely out of his control.

This has created a tense state of affairs in Libya, to say the very least. The rebellion has been building in the eastern cities of Libya, particularly Benghazi, and Qaddafi has been building up his defenses in the capital of Tripoli. This seems to me to be the beginning of the civil war that Qaddafi’s son said would come to pass if the Libyan people didn’t comply with the government, but the people seem ready and willing to fight it.

The network of protests, staged all across the country but focused in the east primarily, have begun to coalesce into what seems to be a greater revolutionary movement committed to opposing Col. Qaddafi and any of his allies. Many signs seem to be indicating that the opposition movement toward Qaddafi is more of a full-scale rebellion than an uprising, and there’s evidence that the war against his authoritarian regime is not going to be fought with words and political pressure, as was seen in Tunisia and Egypt, but with rocket launchers and automatic weapons.

Early on Friday, a speech delivered by Qaddafi (see 4th paragraph) attempted to galvanize the nation’s youth to defend their nation. Going so far as to say “Every individual will be armed,” he reiterated his intention to hold onto power no matter what. Qaddafi has given no signs of flexibility or even a pretense of reform to his people since the struggles in Libya began on the 15th, and because of this, the people have taken their protest to another level.

Since the city of Benghazi fell to the rebellion last Sunday, it almost seems as if two separate countries are taking shape within Libya. In fact, an opposition government is already taking form in Benghazi, as lawyers, judges, police, and defected military officers patch together a new, informal government in a city of more than 600,000. There’s still a lot of suspicion in the city, as it has become the epicenter of the rebellion against Qaddafi.

To me, it looks like Libya is in great danger of splintering into two countries, at least in a de facto sense. Rebel forces have taken almost complete control of the eastern parts of the country, and Qaddafi continues to centralize his power in Tripoli and surrounding areas. A number of prominent military leaders have joined the rebellion, offering their weapons, troops, and tactics. In fact, one leader, Colonel Tarek Saad Hussein, is purportedly leading an attack on Tripoli soon with a fairly substantial strike force armed with weapons expropriated from Qaddafi.

At this point, it really seems as if both sides are gearing up for a new level of conflict resolution of a kind waged with weaponry instead of words. Rebels talk of raids and attacks on Tripoli, and Qaddafi has sent veritable death squads into neighboring towns to try and clear out rebels. Time will only tell how this will resolve itself, but I’m sure that much more blood will be spilled before Libya quiets down.

Mubarak is Gone!

Egypt is free!

On Friday night in Egypt, then-president of Egypt Hosni Mubarak resigned from office and moved to the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. No flowery resignation speech, no final words, only an announcement from VP Omar Suleiman that he and the military would be taking power and helping to set up a new government.

This is completely astonishing, considering that, only yesterday, Mubarak made it clear that he intended to stay in office. Though many are still unsure what exactly went through his mind between then and now, it seems to me like Mubarak finally realized something that I would’ve thought of much sooner: “Do I really want to spend the last years of my life trying to hold together a country in revolution? Wouldn’t I much rather spend it at a resort on the Red Sea?” Well, that’s why I think he threw in the towel.

In all seriousness though, Mubarak’s resignation is a hugely significant event, not just for Egypt, but for the greater Middle East, and for America. Egypt has an opportunity to remake itself into the country it wants to be, but it needs to do things right, or it risks slipping again into the wrong hands. Like the French Revolution hundreds of years ago, this turnover of power has the potential to go bad. Now, I’m not saying that Mohamed ElBaradei is anything like Maximilien Robespierre, but there’s always the possibility  that another  corrupt government will fill the vacuum left by Mubarak. But I’m optimistic! The Egyptian people have shown their mettle over the last 18 days, proving that they simply will not tolerate the kind of state-of-emergency government established by Hosni Mubarak. In this author’s opinion, the Egyptian people have come too far to lose it all now, and there’s no way they’ll let another such government come into place.

That said, there’s still quite a bit to take care of. Many of Mubarak’s “security-driven” measures, such as the permanent state of emergency law and the skewed constitution, still need to be axed and safely replaced, and that will take some time. Besides that, all of those in power (and hoping for it) need to be extremely careful to set up a system that not only facilitates free and fair elections, but works hard to make sure this can’t be reversed. There’s a lot of work to do.

Egypt has finally gained the freedom it hoped for and deserved, and they must use it wisely. Having already become a beacon of hope to other oppressed peoples in the Arab world, Egypt must shine even brighter to show that they are certain to have a proud, democratic future.

Blood in Tahrir

Egypt has been in turmoil for 11 days now. What started as smaller, peaceful demonstrations against Mubarak’s regime have grown exponentially to encompass the entire country. More than 2,000 American citizens have been evacuated from Cairo, and more on their way out.

But things took a terrible and bloody turn on Wednesday. As thousands upon thousands of anti-Mubarak protestors assembled in Tahrir Square, near the center of Cairo, armed “supporters” of Mubarak began to enter the square as well, after disembarking from buses that pulled up nearby. The men carried chains, rubber hoses, knives, clubs and all kinds of other makeshift weapons. At first, they simply chanted in support of Mubarak. But, as if each of them were following orders, they all began attacking the anti-government protestors at 2:15 pm, throwing rocks, pieces of metal, and all kinds of projectiles. There’s little suspicion among the anti-Mubarak group that these men were what are called “baltageya,” plain-clothes hired arms for Mubarak. In a way, they’re mercenaries. After a while, the anti-government protestors began to fight back, returning the attacks against the mercenary protestors. The battle raged well into the night, eventually progressing to use of homemade firebombs and live arms fire. More than 800 people were injured and at least 8 killed.

And the army just watched.

While the government-sanctioned violence in Tahrir was atrocious (in fact, President Obama has openly broken ties with Mubarak’s Egypt), it’s really not all that surprising. At this point, Mubarak has huge amounts of pressure on him from all sides: The United States, other important countries like Germany, Britain, and France, and most importantly, his own people. The bloodshed on Wednesday was tragic, but it showed the dedication of the Egyptian people to their cause of democracy. They’ve battled through brutal riot police and now their own fellow Egyptians (hired thugs really), and many of the anti-government protestors have said that they’ll either get the democracy they want or die right there in Tahrir Square. That’s dedication.

Mubarak’s already given significant ground to the protestors, but it’s not enough. It’s been made abundantly clear by the Egyptian people that his time is up, and they seem determined to keep the pressure on him until he steps down from power. It’s only a matter of time until his time is up.

Egypt in the Army’s Hands

Further developments in Egypt! As you may have heard, the Army has been deployed in many parts of Egypt, effectively replacing the police.

The problem with this, from Mubarak’s perspective at least, is that the people love the Army.

While it wouldn’t quite be accurate to say that the Egyptian Army’s machine guns fire jelly beans and butterflies (actually, jelly beans would really do some damage at those speeds), the Army has thus far allowed protestors free (peaceful) reign of the streets, preventing only violent action and the destruction of government property. The people on the street certainly aren’t feeling pressured or threatened by this new military presence either. In fact, many civilians have been seen cheerfully chatting with soldiers as others hold up signs and shout “Down with Mubarak, down with the regime!”

The sentiment on the ground seems to be that the Army is taking the job of peacekeeping very literally, taking no aggressive action against civilians. Ironically, the heavily armed and armored military presence here is both more reserved and more welcome in Cairo than the notoriously violent police ever were.

The Army here has pulled coups in the past, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to me if the very troops Mubarak called on to maintain order were the same ones to take him out of the office he used to issue that command. Many people (this author included) think that the ultimate decision about Egypt’s political future is in the hands of the Egyptian Army. Nearly 500,000 troops strong, and led by generals of uncertain motives en rie Mubarak, the armed forces here will be the tipping point in the next few days and weeks. I’ll be keeping an eye on things over there!

PS! I’m posting a poll (which I’m guessing will get no responses cuz I don’t have readership yet) about whether Mubarak will remain in power! What do you think?

Chaos in the Middle East

For those of you who have been reading the news lately, things have gotten a little crazy over in the Middle East as of late. Starting in December of last year, Tunisia had a little uprising, one that ended badly for then-president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, a vaguely creepy-looking head of a corrupt authoritarian government. Ben Ali had been funneling money to his extended family and spending huge quantities on his and their pleasures as the rest of the country foundered (similar to what Louis XVI pulled back in the French Revolution).

This uprising (and overthrowing) in Tunisia was fairly alarming to other Arab leaders, as many of them led similar autocratic governments. And lo and behold, Egypt is foundering in political turmoil and civil unrest. The protests have spread not only to Egypt, but to Jordan and Yemen as well. Throw in the collapse of the Lebanese government, and you have a pretty big explosion waiting to happen.

Now, the way I see it, there’s two ways to look at this. The first might be a bit stupidly optimistic (and I consider myself something of a master of stupid optimism), but here goes. The governments in many of these countries are notorious for their authoritarian rule. The country on everyone’s mind right now is Egypt, so I’ll focus on them for a bit. The president of Egypt, a guy by the name of Hosni Mubarak, has been in power in Egypt for 30 years. Even if the Egyptian people had the option to elect someone else, 30 years is an egregious amount of time for one person to remain in power without the option of ousting said leader. So you could look at these protests in that way: An eruption of anti-autocratic sentiment, when the oppressed people rise up against the oppressors and break their chains.

Like I said, that’s the stupidly optimistic view. The other, more realistic view is of course more complicated. Egypt has always acted as one of America’s staunchest allies in the Middle East, a region full of pies that America has dug its fingers into. While one can hardly say that Mubarak’s police state is humane or “American,” we risk losing a firm foothold in that part of the world. There’s a lot of uncertainty in these protests. People want Mubarak out, but it would seem there’s not much of a plan for a replacement (though I’m sure many people will present themselves as candidates). Chances are that if the government were to be replaced (and Mubarak with it), America would stand to lose a lot. But who knows? Maybe it’s about time we do.