The situation in Libya, which didn’t have a particularly pleasant start, seems to be continually deteriorating. Both sides, neither particularly well-organized or seeming to possess much of a plan, are arming themselves and drawing up plans that seem destined to lock them in an ever more-violent civil war.
This violence is even more striking when one considers the direction that the other prominent uprisings have taken as compared to this one. While protestors in Egypt and Tunisia managed to topple their governments with relatively little violence, and now are taking leaps and bounds toward progress, the revolts in Libya have quickly turned into a revolution, and again morphed into an outright violent rebellion.
I can hardly blame them for reacting this way. The protests began with peaceful sit-ins, but after Col. Qaddafi brutally attacked peaceful protestors in Tripoli, a stunned and appalled population turned against him, determined to have justice in the most expedient way possible. After taking much of the eastern part of the country (see map), the rebels have been gearing up for war. After a pro-Qaddafi attack on Zawiyah and rallies for the same in Tripoli, the tyrannical leader has shown that he really meant what he said about not letting go of power, claiming he would die as a martyr before he would “give up on his country.”
Yet even while Qaddafi tries to solidify his power and give the world the impression that the situation is under his control, the rebellion has become more and more defiant and determined. In fact, the political face and governing body (or the closest thing to a governing body) for the rebellion, the National Transitional Council, announced yesterday that it considered itself the “sole representative all over Libya.” As you can see, both sides seem determined to hold onto the power they have (and take more of it) until the bitter end.
Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but the events of this rebellion seem strikingly similar to the events of the French Revolution, back at the turn of the 19th century. In both this rebellion and what I see as its French predecessor (in spirit at least), a group of revolutionaries unilaterally named themselves the sole government body that possessed any governing power, and grew increasingly resistant to an increasingly oppressive regime. There are, of course, key differences. First, the French version was very much focused in Paris, with the city being torn apart by conflict and drawn-out strife. In Libya, the factions have taken power in separate areas of the country, and both are gearing up for further struggle. Second, there is much more international involvement in Libya than there ever was in France, which could help things from becoming too excessively violent as they did in France. Finally, there will be a much different impact of this revolution than the one in France. In Libya, the largest impact on the international community, at least as I see it, is likely to be on the price of the oil we’ve become so dependent on.
No matter what similarities or differences there are between this revolution and the French one, I think that the rebellion in Libya is unlikely to have a resolution soon, in either direction. Both sides have become too stubborn and immovable to give any ground at this point. But with almost the entire international community on the side of the protestors, and with the UN and NATO considering further sanctions against Qaddafi, my vote is going to be cast in favor of the rebels. Even if Qaddafi manages to violently quash the growing rebellion, it would be impossible for him to reconstruct the country and the government in a way that would serve his interests. Too much of the country has turned against him, and he faces too much international pressure to keep holding on. While the rebels want no foreign military intervention, they seem to welcome the sanctions, asset freezes, and condemnations being directed at Qaddafi.
So! While I can’t be sure how things will end, I’m feeling optimistic for the rebels and their cause. With the back-up of the United Nations, a rising number of military defectors to their cause, and the power of having already caused irreversible change in their country, the Libyan Peoples’ Army and the rebels of Libya will seize the day eventually. The only question is, what will Libya become once they do?